Tuesday, July 05, 2005

If Sunnis Cooperate, Will We?

From today's Washington Post:

"BAGHDAD, July 4 -- Several senior clerics of Iraq's disaffected Sunni Muslim minority will soon issue a decree calling on followers of the faith to vote in upcoming elections and help write a new constitution, a prominent Sunni leader said Monday. The step could draw Sunni Arabs away from the insurgency and into a political process they have steadfastly rejected."

I hope this takes hold, because a Sunni commitment to establishing a stable Iraqi government is, I believe, the only way to achieve a peaceful conclusion to the insurgency in that country. A military solution seems impossible. The mighty US military is unable to defeat the insurgents. The notion that an Iraqi force could succeed at such a task is absurd.

The key to ending the insurgency is for the Iraqi insurgents to decide that participating in their own governmental process is a superior course of action to the never-ending environment of violence and chaos that they have now. At that point, a united Iraq would have the strength to repel the foreign insurgents pouring across its borders.

The tricky part: how much of this Sunni cooperation will hinge on US forces leaving Iraq in a timely manner? Will the neo-cons in the administration balk at abandoning their dream of a permanent military base of operations in the heart of the Middle East?

If you haven't seen it yet, read this 2004 article from The Christian Science Monitor on "enduring bases" in Iraq.

5 comments:

  1. Hi Jeff--

    Yes, the Shiites and Kurds and Sunnis appear to be doing everything they can to make a bad situation better. Blonde nod to them!

    Nice to see them trying to achieve long-lasting peace.

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  2. And I say GOOD FOR THEM if they can make it happen. It is their part of the world, after all.

    I just hope they get their act together enough to be able to say "no more access for you" to the neo-slobs when the time comes.

    Jeff

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  3. Anonymous5:58 PM

    Karen posting:

    Jeff,
    I'd appreciate your assessment of this question: Assuming that the U.S. keeps the current troop deployment levels at 135,000 and continues the same military operations, in your opinion, what will be the consequences on American soldiers in Iraq. Will the situation become really ugly for American soldiers? That is, poor morale, problems with new recruits, equipment, etc. start to reduce their effectiveness and casualty rates increase. Or do you think the Army and Marines can manage to avoid these problems?

    Karen

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  4. Off the top of my head:

    USA and USMC leadership will continue to cover the problems with bullshit, leading to worse and worse problems.

    Wish I could predict otherwise, but I've been around to see how the higher ups suck up.

    We're not in for a good time.

    Jeff

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  5. Put another way:

    All the four stars still on active duty are Rummy's boys, just like all the four stars in Vietnam were McNamara's boys.

    They'll bullshit as long as they can.

    ReplyDelete