Monday, June 13, 2005

Insurgency ABCs

If A is greater than B, and C is greater than A, can B be greater than C?

We better hope it can, because that's the logic behind our strategy in Iraq.

Our "best trained, best equipped" military made mince meat of Iraq's regular forces (which it was trained and equipped to do), but is unable to quell an irregular force of insurgents (which it wasn't trained or equipped to do--not particularly well, anyway). Now, our best hope for victory in Iraq is to reconstitute the regular force we trounced and train it to do something we can't.

Logical? No. Possible? Maybe. Probable? Hmm...

Fortunately or unfortunately, war, like all forms of social and political intercourse, doesn't conform to neat, formulaic calculations. Despite advances in the technology of the machinery of war, human beings are still involved, and human beings tend to behave in ways that defy logic.

So maybe we can reconstitute and train a force inferior to ours to defeat an enemy that's proven superior to us.

I pray that's the case, because thanks to the neo-folks who launched this war, that's the only roll-of-the-dice strategic option we have.

But I'm not betting a paycheck on its chances of success.



No comments:

Post a Comment