tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post115894260064459743..comments2024-03-26T05:18:53.709-04:00Comments on Pen and Sword: Iran's Star Rising in the Next World Order (Part I)Jeff Huberhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1159018569614188092006-09-23T09:36:00.000-04:002006-09-23T09:36:00.000-04:00If you read Yergin's "the Prize" or any other dece...If you read Yergin's "the Prize" or any other decent history of the oil industry, you note a steady flow of power from the oil companies to the governments under whose soil the oil is. They've gone from being governments within governments to - generally - being glorified property management companies.<BR/><BR/>You also a much wider diffusion of the technologies involved in effificently extracting oil. In the 1950s, pretty much the only companies that had the know how to run oil fields were American, British or French. Today, you can outsource the management of just about every part of exploration, drilling, extraction and reservoir management to the likes of Halliburton or, if you prefer the French, Schlumberger. The only part others won't do is find you investors.<BR/><BR/>An analogy would be computers. Back in the 60s, you could only lease one of a few models from IBM. Today you can go to Fry's and buy all the components necessary to build a computer to your exact specifications.<BR/><BR/>The oil business does have a history of being opaque, but today, in many (but admittedly not all situations,) contracts are assigned mostly on business merit. Iran, Norway, Malaysia, China, Japan, Venezuela are just some of the countries with noteworthy oil companies.<BR/><BR/>The American oil companies know this, and I am sure that they, more than most other Americans, are horrified by their now being frozen out of the huge and lucrative Iraqi market. If the oil companies did instigate our Iraqi adventure, it was utterly irrational. And bear in mind that they, more than most others, have their ears quite close to the ground. I, for one, cannot see any benefit whatsoever to them from a confrontation with Iran.<BR/><BR/>If you read Sampson's "The Seven Sisters" you'll see that already in the 70s under Nixon, the oil companies were, at times, furious with the State Department for knifing them in the back. They make great ogres, but if you follow the money, it doesn't, and can't, lead to big oil.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1158969210295935472006-09-22T19:53:00.000-04:002006-09-22T19:53:00.000-04:00SCUF, or Short Crazy Ugly "Fellow', as I call Ahma...SCUF, or Short Crazy Ugly "Fellow', as I call Ahmadinejad, may well be nuts but he's not really in charge, is he? That would be Khameni. SCUF is no. 3 in the official Iranaian pecking order and is just the front man, at least for now, and his entourage has a fairly sophisticated crew of National Security types. It may be that at some point SCUF takes charge and I suspect a lot of what is going on on the Iranian end is a power struggle. The fact that there seem to be rational actors on the Iranian team differentiates that team from ours, who differ from the 3 Stooges only in that there seem to be rather more players on our team.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1158949521599390432006-09-22T14:25:00.000-04:002006-09-22T14:25:00.000-04:00Define crazy. I spent a fair amoung of time aroun...Define crazy. I spent a fair amoung of time around three and four star military officers, and if a one of them didn't have head full of snakes, I'm a mongoose. <BR/><BR/><BR/>Imagine how serpentine the heads of heads of state are. <BR/><BR/>;-)Jeff Huberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1158949067116954372006-09-22T14:17:00.000-04:002006-09-22T14:17:00.000-04:00I agree that Ahmadinejad actually makes sense from...I agree that Ahmadinejad actually makes sense from time to time but I think he still is crazy - and note because of Rove spin, but rather the hard fundamentalism and holocaust denial stuff. Maybe he is just pandering to his religious base but it still seems a bit scary to me.<BR/><BR/>ALthough, it doesn't scare me as much as the fact that he still seems more credible than the current administration in the USA.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1158946121140964532006-09-22T13:28:00.000-04:002006-09-22T13:28:00.000-04:00Jeff there's a real interesting post by billmon to...Jeff there's a real interesting post by billmon today on what would happen if (when) the US bombs Iran. The main point is that if you are Iran, you don't go crazy if that happens. No, instead you keep calm, take the moral high ground, strengthen ties with China and Russia, and unleash some whoopass in Iraq. Everything the Bush administration is doing is making Iran stronger and stronger, the should have called PNAC the PNSC, Project for a New Shia Century.<BR/><BR/>As you rightly point out, China has an enormous amount of power. Their economic support of the US debt allows them tremendous leverage without having to fire a single shot.<BR/><BR/>Honestly, if I was Europe, I'd be doing some stuff to make sure they gain while the US loses, but in a subtly European way of course. Nothing personal mind you, just business. <BR/><BR/>The sad thing is that most people are oblivious to this, and when the other shoe drops at some point in the future, it'll be a case of "what the hell happened?!"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com