tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post113882060738897986..comments2024-03-26T05:18:53.709-04:00Comments on Pen and Sword: SOTU: the Real Drain on the EconomyJeff Huberhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1139585075562536672006-02-10T10:24:00.000-05:002006-02-10T10:24:00.000-05:00I'm sorry to tell you, but that article is a reha...I'm sorry to tell you, but that article is a rehash of the standard USAF propaganda on the F-22. In other words, it's bunk. <BR/><BR/>I'll be posting more about this later, but let me mention now that I was involved in the Australian debate over whether to buy the F-22 or the Burke class missile destroyers for their air defense system. The F-22 just doesn't make sense.Jeff Huberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1139581964094609072006-02-10T09:32:00.000-05:002006-02-10T09:32:00.000-05:00If you still can't be convinced of the wisdom of t...If you still can't be convinced of the wisdom of the F-22 program, then for the sake of intellectual honest, I urge you to read the following:<BR/><BR/>http://www.ausairpower.net/air-superiority-2.html<BR/><BR/>Basically, the problem is not that the F-15 can stand toe-to-toe with any fighter except the F-22 today. The problem is that the latest generation of cheap anti-air missiles virtually guarantee shoot-downs of fighters like the F-15.<BR/><BR/>The U.S. had total air superiority in Iraq and Afghanistan because neither country had an air force to speak of. But that's aside the point - the threat is from the new generation of missiles, which the Russian and Chinese are building in large numbers. <BR/><BR/>So you can continue to spend tens of billions maintaining fleets of F-15s, which will all get shot down when the U.S. meets an enemy that has managed to acquire them, cheaply, from the Russians or actually buy the only fighter jet that is able to survive against these missiles, the only reason being its inherent stealth capabilities.<BR/><BR/>The French thought pouring billions into their Maginot line made them impregnable against the assault of any army....from WWI. Germany's new Panzer divisions showed how quickly the tank made the Maginot line into a symbol of blind and short-sighted hubris. <BR/><BR/>It may seem like the F-22 is an expensive boodoggle, but I'd ask every critic to fly a $100 million F-15E against a $1 million new generation air-to-air missile and and then say if the F-15 is still a wise investment. <BR/><BR/>It would be very foolish to assume that the next enemy the U.S. fights won't have those missiles.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138977782066254982006-02-03T09:43:00.000-05:002006-02-03T09:43:00.000-05:00Thanks, Scott.Thanks, Scott.Jeff Huberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138916214029672302006-02-02T16:36:00.000-05:002006-02-02T16:36:00.000-05:00To Anonymous, Please don't get the impression that...To Anonymous, <BR/><BR/>Please don't get the impression that I was trying to chase you off. I welcome reasonably responsible and documented counter arguments to the positions I take here, and yours was pretty darn good in that sense. <BR/><BR/>In this particular case, I happen to question a lot of your supporting information, and also think that I know a bit more about the subject than you do. That certainly doesn't mean I know all things about military and foreign policy affairs. Nobody does. But on this subject, I still think my position is the correct one.Jeff Huberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138915928963078962006-02-02T16:32:00.000-05:002006-02-02T16:32:00.000-05:00Scott, I'm trying to catch up on this story, and t...Scott, <BR/><BR/>I'm trying to catch up on this story, and trying not to project too much about Alito's judicial philosophy based on one case that I'm not at all familiar with. <BR/><BR/>Question for you. What was the original jurisdiction in this case? I'm guessing it was a state matter. How does something like this get into federal jurisdiction? Is it a matter of the attorney presenting an argument that the state law or the state judicial process somehow violated his client's constitutional rights?Jeff Huberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138888145267433112006-02-02T08:49:00.000-05:002006-02-02T08:49:00.000-05:00Barndog, Thanks again for stopping by. While I'm ...Barndog, <BR/><BR/>Thanks again for stopping by. While I'm doing all this typing...<BR/><BR/>I really only covered the need for conventional forces here, and I stand by the two scenerio theory--China and Korea. The Chinese problem is an interdiction operation. I've seen many so called experts describe a war with China as an expulsion from Taiwan or a US invasion of the mainland itself, which is really, really inaccurate. <BR/><BR/>The business of theater and interecontinental ballistic missiles with WMD tips is a different matter. Can we really build a missile defense system that actually works? I don't know, but I think our own arsenal makes for a better deterrence than an iffy defense system would.Jeff Huberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138887771794308462006-02-02T08:42:00.001-05:002006-02-02T08:42:00.001-05:00As usual - On time, on target Commander.Those sigh...As usual - On time, on target Commander.<BR/><BR/>Those sights are dialed in pretty good, eh?<BR/><BR/>Semper FidelisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138887726189214272006-02-02T08:42:00.000-05:002006-02-02T08:42:00.000-05:00Scott, Yes, the prime example of what you're descr...Scott, <BR/><BR/>Yes, the prime example of what you're describing happened after WWII. However, I'll argue that today's situation is quite a bit different. The WWII force was built specifically to fight that war, it wasn't built to last. We now have a standing professional force which, in theory at least, is actually better prepared and equipped in peacetime. <BR/><BR/>There was also quite a bit of bad thinking after WWII about what future wars would look like. Many thought nukes would make conventional forces obsolete, and of course they turned out to be wrong. <BR/><BR/>As to the spending, your background probably gives you a pretty good idea what kinds of shenanigans go on in the acquisition biz. Know how much the USS Ronald Reagan cost the taxpayers? I've heard rumors it was about twice what the government is telling the taxpayers. <BR/><BR/>As to history repeating itself, I'm of Mark Twain's opinion. It really just rhymes. Today may "sound like" yesterday, but it's not an identical day. <BR/><BR/>Getting back to your point about what happens after a war. The other example of what you're talking about is Vietnam, a prolongued war conceived and run badly; it was the war itself that wore down the military, not the decision to downsize afterwards (military malaise). <BR/><BR/>My biggest concern with our Iraq adventure is that the Army will never recover from it. The air and naval forces should come out of this okay. <BR/><BR/>Last comment: if you give the services everything they ask for, they'll ask for everything. <BR/><BR/>Thanks much for stopping by and posting. Come back soon. <BR/><BR/>JeffJeff Huberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138886774240392272006-02-02T08:26:00.000-05:002006-02-02T08:26:00.000-05:00One other thing. Operationally, if we don't stop ...One other thing. Operationally, if we don't stop an invasion of Taiwan as it's crossing the strait, we deserve to lose. The proper way to fight that battle is to interdict, not to expel the invaders.Jeff Huberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138886718630827512006-02-02T08:25:00.000-05:002006-02-02T08:25:00.000-05:00As a member of that military industrial complex th...As a member of that military industrial complex through having a defense industry job, let me be the first to say "I'm willing to work somewhere else!". I would also point out that history repeats itself, though.<BR/><BR/>Our country has a long history of concluding a war, then deciding military spending isn't as important afterwards. We allow our forces to dwindle, our training to lose importance, and our equipment to become obsolete, then end up scrambling to catch up in the next conflict. Lots of lives are unnecessarily lost at first because of this. I'm sure you can think of a couple examples, Jeff.<BR/><BR/>I'm not calling for spending at the current levels to continue, but lets not cut so deep that we repeat the mistakes of the past either.<BR/><BR/>Scott,<BR/>On Alito's vote, that could just as easily be a tactic to make that vote for Stevens replacement easier to sell. I'll be more willing to look at Alito's voting record critically when it's slightly higher than one.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138886658932989492006-02-02T08:24:00.000-05:002006-02-02T08:24:00.000-05:00Anonymous:Taking your points in more or less rever...Anonymous:<BR/><BR/>Taking your points in more or less reverse order:<BR/><BR/>I question the 720 number. I'd be quite suprised to find they could train 720 pilots to fly them, and even if they could train them, they'd be roughly as good as Russian fighter pilots, which isn't too good. <BR/><BR/>The J-10 is a strike fighter, not a "state of the art" air to air fighter. <BR/><BR/>I'm guessing the war game in which an F-22 shot down 8 F-15s was a simulation. I'm quite familiar with Air Force simulations/tests. They come out the way they're supposed to. <BR/><BR/>No alternative to the F-22? Have you heard of the Joint Strike Fighter (F-35?) I'm very much aware of how long it takes to design and field a weapon system like a fighter jet. Why do you and others assume the Chinese can do all this faster?<BR/><BR/>I'd need more info on the Indian war game. What were the US pilots flying? Who were they? At the time they got "schooled," were the US pilots flying older fighter category profiles? (Do you know what that means?) What were the Marines flying against the Thais? What profiles were they flying?<BR/><BR/>I'm sorry, but you haven't stated anything that changes my mind about the validity of my conclusions. Your arguments sound like the ones the services and contractors make. Scary sounding until you pull a few strings and discover there's not much behind them.Jeff Huberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138855120191043272006-02-01T23:38:00.000-05:002006-02-01T23:38:00.000-05:00For a specific argument why your argument is flawe...For a specific argument why your argument is flawed, see this post at ProfessorBainbridge.com<BR/><BR/>http://www.professorbainbridge.com/2005/08/f22.html<BR/><BR/>The Chinese have their home-built J-10 (supposedly developed with substantial Israeli help, which is a subject for another day) and the Su-27:<BR/><BR/><I>By the end of this decade, the Chinese air force will have deployed at least 720 new generation fighter aircraft that are comparable in general performance to the fighter aircraft such as F-15C, F-16C/D, and F/A-18C/D currently deployed by Western air forces.</I><BR/><BR/>It strikes me that you get ready for the worst case scenario, not the best.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138854742069175882006-02-01T23:32:00.000-05:002006-02-01T23:32:00.000-05:00Unfortunately, for all the bitching about the F-22...Unfortunately, for all the bitching about the F-22's cost (which are admittedly astronomical), the analysis is severely flawed.<BR/><BR/>You don't design advanced weapons systems after the fact because these days, a complex system like the Raptor takes decades to develop. So we stop making the F-22. Let's say China invades Taiwan, and the latest generation stealthy Sukoi's the Chinese have been buying from the Russian are the match of our F-15s, F-16s, and F-18s. What are you going to do? Start a crash program and hope that you can develop a superiority fighter in less than 5 years?<BR/><BR/>Things like the F-22 are designed in ANTICIPATION of future threats, because the days of being able to churn out an entirely new weapons platform in 1 or 2 years ended in WWII. <BR/><BR/>And if you should be worried if you really cared about long-term strategic defense. The U.S. participates in war games with a number of other countries. Just a year or two ago, the U.S. team got totally schooled by Indian air force pilots flying F-16s. Thai F-16 pilots similarly have schooled Marine pilots on a number of occasions and the latest Russian jets should be cause to worry, because they are far superior to the previous generation of jets and anyone with enough cash can buy them.<BR/><BR/>Don't think China isn't buying a large quantities of Russian technology and adding their own modifications.<BR/><BR/>The name of the game is not taking a breather because there doesn't seem to be any danger of losing - we know what happened to the hare on that one.<BR/><BR/>Rather, it would be more constructive to find a way to develop systems like the F-22 that isn't so hugely expensive. But in terms of alternatives, there is no alternative to the F-22.<BR/><BR/>(Thought experiment: in a recent wargame, a single F-22 "shot" down 8 opposing F-15s before the F-15s even had a chance to engage. Now it can be argued that $200 million for an F-22 is expensive - until you add the cost of buying 8 F-15s.)<BR/><BR/>Even a new lost-cost system will take at least a decade to develop and by that time, our F-15s will be like 30-40 years old. So unless your defense philosophy is rooted in the idea that your hardware should only be the equivalent to what else is out there, this arguments laid out in this post are fatally flawed. Appealing perhaps, but flawed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138846326259098152006-02-01T21:12:00.000-05:002006-02-01T21:12:00.000-05:00"Batshit." Yeah, that's a good term for it."Batshit." Yeah, that's a good term for it.Jeff Huberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138843752552874492006-02-01T20:29:00.000-05:002006-02-01T20:29:00.000-05:00Welcome back, Cmdr.I concurr - great detail on thi...Welcome back, Cmdr.<BR/><BR/>I concurr - great detail on this post. Reminds me of the last peacetime accident my old helo squadron had - on the mexican border chasing pot runners. Killed both Pilot & CP in a AH-1T Cobra.<BR/><BR/>I always wondered what in the flying fuck a Cobra would do to a few Mexicans running a few LBs of shitty dope across the southern border. Sure wasn't worth the 2 Marine Officer's lives - let alone the T model Cobra replacement.<BR/><BR/>About the same as using the F-22 to chase 737's around the dammed airspace. I can understand the need for advanced avionics and such, but for christ sakes...<BR/><BR/>These people are batshit. Utterly fucking batshit insane.<BR/><BR/>Semper FidelisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138827532742841492006-02-01T15:58:00.000-05:002006-02-01T15:58:00.000-05:00"My way or the highway" is not diplomacy, agreed.I..."My way or the highway" is not diplomacy, agreed.<BR/><BR/>I have to wonder how that Iran poll was worded, and who was asking the question?<BR/><BR/>As someone said about our defense spending, we've become a military machine "trolling the planet in search of an enemy."Jeff (no, the other one)https://www.blogger.com/profile/04030611459552848949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12796551.post-1138822293361982322006-02-01T14:31:00.000-05:002006-02-01T14:31:00.000-05:00Pretty nuts. All my experience and education tell...Pretty nuts. All my experience and education tells me there are very finite limits on what military action can actually accomplish. <BR/><BR/>Foreign policy wise, it's wonderful to have all our land, air, and sea power available, but you can't bomb, shell, or invade the world into doing what you want it to.Jeff Huberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14146644937683409726noreply@blogger.com